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With a professional eye, it is
difficult to see what NRM government has done right. However, it is very easy
to see what it has done wrong. The costs have by far exceeded the benefits,
raising serious questions about how long Ugandans should sustain NRM in
power. So far, surrogates for the government have failed to convince the
public. That they have failed comes through when asked to provide success
stories. They don’t even know how to successfully attack their opponents,
ending up embarrassing themselves when asked to substantiate their
allegations. Let us illustrate what has gone wrong.
1. In the countryside, fisheries,
forests, woodlands, wetlands and grasslands of Uganda that Winston Churchill
talked and wrote about in 1907 have been extensively used with serious
environmental damage. The clearing of vegetation to increase crop and animal
production for domestic consumption and export has had negative impact.
Vegetative cover has three functions. It protects soils from erosion, helps
rainwater sink into the ground and maintain or raise water tables and
contributes to convectional rainfall. Extensive de-vegetation has exposed
soils to wind and rain erosion, water runoff has increased causing floods and
lowering water tables that plants with short roots do not get enough water
and have dried causing the development of desertification conditions (dust
storms, shrinking water bodies and disappearing rivers – Kiborogota
disappeared a long time ago and Rwizi is on the way to extinction on NRM
watch). Convectional rainfall has also declined. Thermal (temperature) and
hydrological (water) regimes have been adversely impacted resulting in rising
temperatures and declining rainfall, hence warmer local climate change that
has facilitated the spread of mosquitoes and malaria. The resulting
combination of eroded soils, droughts and floods has contributed to a
reduction in agricultural productivity and total production, leading to
shortages of agricultural supplies (also contributed to by food exports) and
the associated rising prices beyond the means of many Uganda consumers, hence
rising malnutrition and other health disabilities like insanity. FAO published
a report a few years ago and warned that if environmental degradation is not
arrested and reversed Uganda will turn into a desert within 100 years – a
very short time indeed by historical standards which NRM does not appear to
view that way. Already some areas that were once crop cultivation some with
two growing seasons a year have turned into grazing land conditions because
of insufficient moisture for crop cultivation.
2. Inappropriate urban policies
have contributed to two major problems especially in the nation’s capital
city of Kampala. Unplanned construction of buildings has blocked water
drainage channels causing frequent flooding and stagnant water that has
created breeding grounds for mosquitoes to reproduce rapidly and transmit
malaria. A combination of stagnant water in urban areas and warmer climate
change as in Kabale district has increased mosquito population and deaths
caused by malaria have doubled. Rapid rural-urban migration has given rise to
rapid sprawl of slums to the extent that some 70 percent of urban population
lives in slums and are experiencing all sorts of economic, social,
environmental and moral challenges.
3. Deficits in social policy have
given rise to poor school attendance, poor quality and largely irrelevant
education and functional illiteracy of many graduates most of them
unemployable. Poor health and nutrition policy has resulted in high levels of
mortality especially among women and children. Re-emergence of diseases that
had disappeared is a reflection of serious deficits in the health sector.
Malnutrition is killing more people in Uganda than malaria – and deaths from
malaria have doubled. A combination of poor education, poor health and poor
diet has undermined human capital formation that is necessary in a knowledge-based
global economy. That is why Uganda youth are unemployed while jobs with
knowledge-based skills are going to foreigners including Kenyans. Defenders
of government should not describe Uganda jobs going to foreign workers
because of the forces of globalization beyond government control. It is the
result of NRM policy failure.
4. There is nothing good to report
about infrastructure. The roads are in a sorry state especially in rural
areas. When bridges are washed away which are costly to repair given scarce
local government resources roads become unusable, with multiple problems. The
countryside is cut off from the outside world, trade is affected, shortages
in rural and urban areas increase, economic growth falters and poverty
escalates. Shortages of affordable energy have undermined rural
transformation. The high prices of kerosene and electricity have increased
the use of charcoal and fuel wood, resulting in accelerated deforestation.
Providing grid electricity from Jinja or elsewhere for political purposes has
not served any useful economic purpose because the majority of Ugandans
simply cannot afford it.
5. At one time especially in the
1990s, the government boasted about rapid economic growth reaching 10 percent
and poverty declining dramatically from 50 something to thirty and later to
20 something percent. The president boasted that there was no problem NRM
could not handle. He confidently reported that Uganda would be an industrial
country within 15 years and tolerating high inflation was indiscipline. With
the economy growing at 3 percent and poverty at 80 percent in 2012, the
government no longer boasts. Instead it is blaming external factors and
opposition sabotage for Uganda’s current ills including de-industrialization.
NRM did not realize (or knew but ignored it) that what drove Uganda’s rapid
economic growth was not market forces and private sector under favorable
structural adjustment conditions. Uganda’s source of economic growth
especially in the 1990s came from utilization of excess capacity inherited in
1986, the presence of foreign troops that increased demand for goods and
services and improved security in southern Uganda (that is why insecure north
and east of the country did not share in rapid economic growth). With troops and
excess capacity gone and walk to work demonstrations discouraging
investments, the economic growth dropped precipitously from 10 percent in
mid-1990s to 3 percent in 2012. To meet the Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs) by 2015 including reducing poverty and hunger in half Uganda’s economy
needs to grow at a minimum rate of 8-9 percent per annum. The prospects for
realizing that goal in the next three and half years are very bleak indeed.
6. NRM’s performance in democracy
and governance is defined by deficits. Elections since 1996 have been marked
by violence, intimidation, bribery, overuse of incumbency and fraud to the
extent that opposition parties rejected the 2011 results and have declared
the current government illegitimate. There is virtually no transparency in
government operations and accountability is non-existent. As mentioned
already, things that have gone wrong are blamed on external factors beyond
control and opposition sabotage. Despite complaints from Ugandans and
development partners, rampant corruption, sectarianism, cronyism and
mismanagement of public funds have intensified. When pressure mounts, NRM
government embarks on investigations that produce reports that gather dust on
shelves while bad governance continues unabated. Donors that have continued
to pump money into Uganda have helped to prolong irresponsible NRM behavior.
Supporters of NRM regime have
pointed to successes in export diversification, the number of vehicles on
Uganda roads, mobile phones and country houses roofed with corrugated iron
sheets. Here is what NRM supporters don’t tell you that negate overall
performance.
1. It is true that Uganda’s
unprocessed exports have been diversified with non-traditional exports (NTEs)
including foodstuffs such as fish, beans and maize traditionally supplied for
domestic consumption. Fisheries (wild harvesting and fish farming in ponds)
were developed by the colonial administration to provide an affordable source
of protein to low income households. Fish and beans provided enough protein.
The export of these two items has reduced supplies in the domestic market.
Consequently Uganda diet for the majority of consumers lacks protein. The
export of food has resulted in two major problems. Ugandans are not eating
enough. Some thirty percent go to bed hungry every night. Those who do eat
one meal of maize or cassava a day or in two days. Eating too much cassava or
maize has contributed to serious neurological handicaps including insanity,
explaining why Uganda’s mental hospitals are overflowing. Despite warnings of
the danger of poor diet, the president has insisted Uganda will continue to
export food to benefit from high external demand which benefits large scale
producers but grossly disadvantages Uganda consumers. Government cannot even
support a school lunch program so that food for export is not reduced. NRM
has amply demonstrated disinterest in Uganda’s human welfare. Those Ugandans
and others who have not seen this must recast how they view the NRM
government.
2. The number of used vehicles
which in other countries would have been taken off the road for pollution has
increased on Uganda roads. The result of too many vehicles on limited roads
especially in Kampala became time consuming and counterproductive because of
traffic jam. The exhaust they emit became a health hazard. When you add up
the impact of these two shortcomings you see clearly why on balance too many
used vehicles on Uganda roads are not something to boast about.
3. It is true that the number of
mobile phones has increased tremendously. Mobile phones were praised in terms
of communication opportunities they offered in commercial terms. It was
believed for example that farmers would get information about price levels in
different parts of Uganda so that they are not cheated by middlemen. But the
majority of phones have ended up serving a social rather than an economic
function. To buy the very expensive air time many phone owners have had to
make a choice between putting food on the table and buying air time. The
latter has often ended up the winner. Many mobile phone users in rural areas
do not have electricity to charge them. So they have to go to town and that
is a day lost. Providing mobile phones should have been synchronized with
affordable energy supply. Mobile phones have for many users become a
liability than an asset.
4. In a New York restaurant, I had
a long conversation with a compatriot from the same home area as mine about
the achievements of NRM government. He stressed that the most visible
achievement was the multiplication of country houses roofed with corrugated
iron sheets because NRM’s coffee price policy had put more money into the
pockets of coffee farmers like never before. I asked him to give me names of
people who grow coffee that has earned them so much money. He looked baffled
because he could not find them. Then he faced me sternly and asked me to
explain where the money came from. I told him that before Amin came to power
there was a lot of thatch grass in wetlands and in areas where agriculture
was prohibited for ecological reasons. Amin’s agricultural policy of using
any piece of land available including swamps resulted in de-vegetation.
Consequently thatch materials which were free disappeared virtually
overnight. Households had to purchase corrugated iron sheets. Those who had
wage incomes used part of it and purchased iron sheets. Those who didn’t sold
part of their assets such as cattle, goats or a piece of land to raise money
and purchase iron sheets. I told him a story of two families that forced
their daughters to marry early to raise money to be able to roof their houses
with corrugated iron sheets. I further told him that because iron sheets were
expensive new houses were on average smaller than old ones that used free
grass thatch materials, leading to overcrowding and associated health
hazards. He concurred with the presentation from our home area in southwest
Uganda.
Limited space does not allow
giving more illustrations. Hopefully the above analysis suffices that NRM
does not have a good record. This has been the result of many factors
including inappropriate policies, many incompetent staff at professional and
political level (ministers or ministers of state with high school diploma or
dubious degree can’t handle today’s complex issues) and poor governance.
Above all, as we have stated many times before, the core of NRM has devoted
disproportional amount of time on planning the colonization of the Great
Lakes region with tacit support of external helpers: that is where the bulk
of development funds has gone. That is why modernization of agriculture and
poverty reduction programs did not get off the ground. That is why East
African political federation, elimination of national borders and
naturalization of illegal immigrants and refugees have become top priority.
Hopefully Kenya and Tanzania understand what is happening. For these reasons
NRM has no case to continue governing Uganda. The time has come for Ugandans
to look for an alternative government to save Uganda from extinction. States
have disappeared before! When it finally happens don’t say you didn’t know
what NRM was up to all along. We have told you many times already.
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Odaka Asuman
